This paper examines how the transmission of government portfolio risk arising from maturity operations depends on the stance of monetary/fiscal policy. Accounting for risk premia in the fiscal theory allows the government portfolio to affect expected inflation, even in a frictionless economy. The effects of maturity rebalancing on expected inflation in the fiscal theory depend directly on the conditional nominal term premium, giving rise to an optimal debt-maturity policy that is state-dependent. In a calibrated macrofinance model, we demonstrate that maturity operations have sizable effects on expected inflation and output through our novel risk transmission mechanism.

中文翻译：

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贴现率、债务期限和财政理论

本文研究了到期操作产生的政府投资组合风险的传导如何取决于货币/财政政策的立场。考虑到财政理论中的风险溢价，即使在无摩擦经济中，政府投资组合也能影响预期通胀。财政理论中期限再平衡对预期通胀的影响直接取决于有条件名义期限溢价，从而产生依赖于国家的最优债务期限政策。在经过校准的宏观金融模型中，我们证明了到期操作通过我们新颖的风险传导机制对预期通胀和产出产生了相当大的影响。