Big technological improvements in a new, secondary sector lead to a period of excitement about the future prospects of the overall economy, generating boom-bust dynamics propagating through credit markets. Increased future capital prices relax collateral constraints today, leading to a boom before the realization of the shock. But reallocation of capital toward the secondary sector when the shock hits leads to a bust going forward. These cycles are perfectly foreseen in our model, making them markedly different from the typical narrative about unexpected financial shocks used to explain crises. Our dynamics obtain without a departure from rational expectations. In fact, these cycles echo Minsky’s original narrative for financial cycles, according to which “financial trauma occur as normal functioning events in a capitalistic economy.” (Minsky, 1980, p. 21).

中文翻译：

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技术冲击和可预测的明斯基周期

新的第二产业的重大技术进步引发了人们对整体经济未来前景的兴奋，并通过信贷市场产生了繁荣与萧条的动态。未来资金价格的上涨放松了今天的抵押品约束，导致了之前的繁荣实现了震荡。但当冲击来袭时，资本重新配置到第二部门会导致未来的萧条。这些周期在我们的模型中得到了完美的预见，这使得它们与用于解释危机的意外金融冲击的典型叙述明显不同。我们的动力在不偏离理性预期的情况下获得。事实上，这些周期呼应了明斯基对金融周期的最初叙述，根据该叙述，“金融创伤是资本主义经济中正常功能事件的发生”。（明斯基，1980 年，第 21 页）。