The openness of the future is rightly considered one of the qualifying aspects of the temporality of modern society. The open future, which does not yet exist in the present, implies radical unpredictability. This article discusses how, in the last few centuries, the resulting uncertainty has been managed with probabilistic tools that compute present information about the future in a controlled way. The probabilistic approach has always been plagued by three fundamental problems: performativity, the need for individualization, and the opacity of predictions. We contrast this approach with recent forms of algorithmic forecasting, which seem to turn these problems into resources and produce an innovative form of prediction. But can a predicted future still be an open future? We explore this specific contemporary modality of historical futures by examining the recent debate about the notion of actionability in precision medicine, which focuses on a form of individualized prediction that enables direct intervention in the future it predicts.

中文翻译：

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预测的未来仍然是一个开放的未来吗？精准医学中的算法预测和可操作性*

未来的开放性被正确地视为现代社会暂时性的限定方面之一。目前尚不存在的开放未来意味着根本的不可预测性。本文讨论了在过去几个世纪中如何使用概率工具来管理由此产生的不确定性，这些工具以受控方式计算有关未来的当前信息。概率方法一直受到三个基本问题的困扰：表现性、个性化的需要以及预测的不透明性。我们将这种方法与最新形式的算法预测进行对比，后者似乎将这些问题转化为资源并产生了一种创新的预测形式。但预测的未来仍然是开放的未来吗？我们通过研究最近关于精准医学可操作性概念的争论来探索历史未来的这种特定的当代模式，该概念侧重于一种能够对其预测的未来进行直接干预的个体化预测形式。