We analyze the impact on crime of millions of refugees who entered and stayed in Turkey as a result of the civil war in Syria. Using a novel administrative data source on the flow of offense records to prosecutors’ offices in 81 provinces of the country each year, and utilizing the staggered movement of refugees across provinces over time, we estimate instrumental variables models that address potential endogeneity of the number of refugees and their location and find that an increase in the number of refugees leads to more crime. We estimate that the influx of refugees between 2012 and 2016 generated additional 75,000 to 150,000 crimes per year, although it is not possible to identify the distribution of these crimes between refugees and natives. Additional analyses reveal that a low-educated native population has a separate, but smaller, effect on crime. Our results underline the need to quickly strengthen the social safety systems, to take actions to dampen the impact on the labor market, and to provide support to the criminal justice system for mitigating the repercussions of massive influx of individuals into a country, and to counter the social and political backlash that typically emerges in the wake of such large-scale population movements.

中文翻译：

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难民的犯罪影响

我们分析了因叙利亚内战而进入并留在土耳其的数百万难民对犯罪的影响。我们利用一种新颖的行政数据源，了解每年向全国 81 个省份检察官办公室输送犯罪记录的情况，并利用难民随时间跨省的交错流动，我们估计了工具变量模型，以解决难民数量的潜在内生性问题。难民及其所在位置，并发现难民人数的增加会导致更多的犯罪。我们估计，2012 年至 2016 年间难民的涌入每年造成 75,000 至 150,000 起犯罪案件，但无法确定这些犯罪案件在难民和当地人之间的分布情况。其他分析表明，受教育程度较低的本地人口对犯罪有单独但较小的影响。我们的研究结果强调，需要迅速加强社会安全体系，采取行动减轻对劳动力市场的影响，并向刑事司法系统提供支持，以减轻大量个人涌入一个国家的影响，并应对大规模人口流动后通常会出现社会和政治反弹。