All advanced economies have undergone secular revolutions in which religious belief and institutions have been subordinated to secular forms of authority. There are, however, numerous examples of failed secular transitions. To understand these failures, we present a religious club model with endogenous entry and cultural transmission of religious beliefs. A spike in the demand for religious belief, due for example to a negative economic shock, induces a new and more extreme organization to enter the religious market and exploit the dissatisfaction of highly religious types with the religious incumbent. The effect is larger where institutional secularization is more advanced, for example where the religious establishment has moderated itself or has been moderated by the political authority. The greater the moderation of the religious incumbent, the more extreme is the position chosen by the religious entrant, and the larger is the rise in religious participation. Hence, unanticipated shifts in religious demand can lead to the emergence of new and more extreme religious organizations and reverse previous trends toward secularization. Our model sheds light on the causes and consequences of failed secular revolutions and religious revivals in Latin America and Egypt.

所有发达经济体都经历过世俗革命，其中宗教信仰和机构都服从于世俗形式的权威。然而，世俗转型失败的例子有很多。为了理解这些失败，我们提出了一个具有宗教信仰内生进入和文化传播的宗教俱乐部模型。例如，由于负面的经济冲击，对宗教信仰的需求激增，促使一个新的、更极端的组织进入宗教市场，并利用高度宗教类型对宗教现任者的不满。制度世俗化程度越高，例如宗教机构自我调节或受到政治权威调节的地方，影响就越大。宗教现任者越温和，宗教进入者选择的立场就越极端，宗教参与度的上升就越大。因此，宗教需求的意外变化可能导致新的、更极端的宗教组织的出现，并扭转以前的世俗化趋势。我们的模型揭示了拉丁美洲和埃及失败的世俗革命和宗教复兴的原因和后果。