Objectives

Previous work has shown that direct comparison of recidivism rates between jurisdictions without accounting for potential sources of their variation can be misleading. We aimed to systemically review data on recidivism rate internationally and explore sources of between-country variation.

Methods

We reviewed recidivism rates in individuals released from prison and given community sentences. We systematically searched peer-reviewed and gray literature focusing on publications since a systematic review in mid-2019. We extracted data on reoffending, reimprisonment, and re-arrests. To examine the association between index offences and recidivism rates, we calculated risk ratios. We used meta-regression to estimate the association between recidivism in released prisoners and country-level variables. We also summarised reported effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on recidivism rates.

Results

Recidivism data were found for 33 countries. Released prisoners had 2-year reconviction rates between 18% and 55%, while individuals given community sentences had rates between 10% and 47%. Recidivism rates varied based on proportions of index offences. Country-level factors like homicide, robbery, and imprisonment rates were associated with prisoner recidivism. Lower rates during COVID-19 were linked to disruptions in criminal justice processes, reduced prison populations, and fewer crime opportunities.

Conclusions

Interpreting recidivism rates requires considering individual and country-level factors. Transparent reporting of these factors is needed.

中文翻译：

---

全球犯罪累犯率：六年系统回顾更新

目标

先前的研究表明，在不考虑其变化的潜在来源的情况下直接比较不同司法管辖区的累犯率可能会产生误导。我们的目的是系统地审查国际上累犯率的数据，并探讨国家间差异的来源。

方法

我们审查了从监狱释放并被判处社区监禁的个人的累犯率。自 2019 年中期进行系统审查以来，我们系统地检索了针对出版物的同行评审文献和灰色文献。我们提取了有关重新犯罪、重新监禁和重新逮捕的数据。为了检查指数犯罪与累犯率之间的关联，我们计算了风险比率。我们使用元回归来估计释放囚犯的累犯与国家层面变量之间的关联。我们还总结了已报告的 COVID-19 大流行对累犯率的影响。

结果

找到了 33 个国家的累犯数据。被释放的囚犯两年内重新定罪的比例在 18% 到 55% 之间，而被判处社区监禁的人的重新定罪率在 10% 到 47% 之间。累犯率根据指数犯罪的比例而变化。杀人、抢劫和监禁率等国家层面的因素与囚犯累犯有关。COVID-19 期间的较低比率与刑事司法程序中断、监狱人口减少和犯罪机会减少有关。

结论

解释累犯率需要考虑个人和国家层面的因素。需要对这些因素进行透明报告。