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Mountain meteorology: climate change and forecasting perspectives
Weather ( IF 1.9 ) Pub Date : 2023-10-16 , DOI: 10.1002/wea.4460
Massimo Bollasina 1 , Ioana Colfescu 2
Affiliation  

A meeting, titled ‘Mountain meteorology: Climate change and forecasting perspectives’, was held at the Dynamic Earth, Edinburgh, on 22 April 2023, hosted by RMetS in association with the RMetS Scottish local centre.

The meeting sought to bring together various and complementary perspectives on mountain weather and climate, their links, as well as their importance for daily activities and the public. The presentations covered a range of topics, from the main aspects of climate change and its severe consequences for the highly vulnerable mountain habitats, to a forecaster's perspective on the unpredictability of mountain weather. A mountaineer and a forecaster also provided personal accounts of their experiences of severe weather in the United Kingdom (UK) mountains.

The meeting opened with a brief welcome from Gregory Wolverson (Met Office, Edinburgh), incoming chair of the RMetS Scottish local centre, who enthusiastically introduced himself in this new role and reminded the audience of the centre's role and activities.

Massimo Bollasina (University of Edinburgh) talked about climate change in the mountains. Mountain environments are particularly sensitive to the impacts of climate change and are being affected at a faster rate than other terrestrial habitats. Forty per cent of the world's population relies indirectly on mountain resources for drinking water, agriculture, biodiversity and hydroelectricity, which could be lost as a result of global warming. Climate change is also likely to increase exposure to hazards, with extreme events such as avalanches and landslides becoming more common. The implications of climate change in mountains will reach far beyond mountain areas: climate change in mountains is a global concern. The talk provided a comprehensive overview of the recent observed changes in mountain areas, from climate to ecosystems, in a long-term context, and what to expect for the coming decades.

John Mitchell (Met Office, Aberdeen) provided an overview of mountain forecasting in the UK. The weather in the UK is notoriously fickle – changing from 1 day to the next or even 1min to the next. These sudden changes are even more extreme up in the hills and mountains and forecasting for those environments presents unique and difficult challenges due to the accentuated spatial and temporal variability of mountain weather and its extremes: from hurricane-force winds accelerating over the Cairngorms to Stratus cloud seemingly appearing from thin air on the Cuillin Ridge. The talk also described the tools used at the Met Office, from the latest global and high-resolution numerical weather forecasting models to personal knowledge and experience of mountain conditions, to deliver tailored forecasts to help people stay safe and have an enjoyable day in the hills.

Michael Reading (Met Office, Aberdeen) talked about experiencing mountain weather and his personal and unique perspectives and insights as a forecaster. As a weather forecaster and an active Scottish mountaineer, he often gets first-hand experience of the weather he forecasts. This up-close and personal verification is a big asset when preparing and writing mountain forecasts. Experiencing the weather helps to not only describe it in a way that other mountain-goers can understand, but also to know what aspects of the weather are most impactful and what to really focus on. The talk shared some of his own and his colleagues' personal experiences of being out in all different varieties of mountain weather, passing on some of the lessons learnt along the way. He also shared some best practice tips for planning days out in the hills around the weather, and talked about how far ahead one can realistically look with a forecast for the Scottish mountains.

Geoffrey Monk (Mountain Weather Information Service) provided an overview of the challenges in forecasting mountain weather by presenting a series of case studies. The complex coastline and mountain topography of the British Isles has a major impact on UK weather, often causing significant local variations – sometimes within a few kilometres. Conditions in mountain areas are often well outside those normally experienced in ‘city life’. Forecasts require information to be presented, both to experienced mountaineers and casual visitors to the more popular mountain slopes, in a manner that can be readily comprehended and thus hopefully acted on as appropriate. The talk focused on recent case studies, including some very difficult forecasts, and illustrated how the information available can best be presented.

After the series of talks, the meeting concluded with a 90-min guided walking tour of Arthur's Seat, which was attended by about 20 people (Figure 1). During the tour, the participants learnt about the complex geological formation and evolution of the key iconic volcano of Edinburgh and its surrounding craigs. A combination of a series of volcanic eruptions and slow variations, including those brought about by the last expanded glacial streams in Scotland around 30 000–16 000 years ago and successive erosion in the more recent period, contributed to shaping the landscape as we see it today.

Details are in the caption following the image
Figure 1
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The speakers near the top of Arthur's Seat, Edinburgh, during the guided walking tour at the end of the meeting.

The combination of a wide variety of topics covered by the speakers and a hike in the heart of Edinburgh's inactive volcano made the meeting a unique event where both the facts about the science and experiencing weather first-hand on a mountain in miniature reminded us of the importance mountains hold for our future and in our lives.



中文翻译:

山地气象学:气候变化和预测观点

2023 年 4 月 22 日,RMetS 与 RMetS 苏格兰当地中心联合主办了一次题为“山地气象学:气候变化和预测视角”的会议,在爱丁堡动态地球会议中心举行。

会议力求汇集关于山区天气和气候、它们之间的联系以及它们对日常活动和公众的重要性的各种和互补的观点。演讲涵盖了一系列主题,从气候变化的主要方面及其对高度脆弱的山区生境的严重后果,到预报员对山区天气不可预测性的看法。一名登山者和一名预报员还提供了他们在英国山区遭遇恶劣天气的个人经历。

会议在即将上任的 RMetS 苏格兰当地中心主席 Gregory Wolverson(爱丁堡气象局)的简短欢迎中开始,他热情地介绍了自己的新角色,并提醒观众该中心的作用和活动

Massimo Bollasina(爱丁堡大学)谈到了山区的气候变化。山区环境对气候变化的影响特别敏感,并且比其他陆地栖息地受到影响的速度更快。世界人口百分之四十的饮用水、农业、生物多样性和水力发电间接依赖山区资源,而这些资源可能因全球变暖而消失。气候变化也可能增加灾害风险,雪崩和山体滑坡等极端事件变得更加常见。山区气候变化的影响将远远超出山区:山区气候变化是全球关注的问题。演讲全面概述了最近观察到的山区从气候到生态系统的长期变化,以及未来几十年的预期。

John Mitchell(阿伯丁气象局)概述了英国的山区预报。英国的天气变化无常是出了名的——一天一天变化,甚至下一分钟一分钟变化。这些突然的变化在丘陵和山区更为极端,由于山区天气及其极端天气的时空变化加剧,从凯恩戈姆山脉上空加速的飓风到层云,对这些环境的预测提出了独特而困难挑战似乎凭空出现在翠林山脊上。演讲还介绍了英国气象局使用的工具,从最新的全球高分辨率数值天气预报模型到个人对山区状况的了解和经验,以提供量身定制的预报,帮助人们保持安全并在山上度过愉快的一天。

迈克尔·雷丁(阿伯丁气象局)谈到了山区天气的经历以及他作为预报员的个人独特的观点和见解。作为一名天气预报员和活跃的苏格兰登山家,他经常获得他预报的天气的第一手经验。在准备和撰写山区预报时,这种近距离的个人验证是一笔巨大的财富。体验天气不仅有助于以其他登山者可以理解的方式描述天气,还有助于了解天气的哪些方面最具影响力以及真正需要关注的内容。这次演讲分享了他自己和同事在各种不同的山区天气中外出的个人经历,并传递了沿途学到的一些经验教训。他还分享了一些根据天气情况规划山上旅行的最佳实践技巧,并谈到了根据苏格兰山区的天气预报,人们可以实际看到多远的前景。

Geoffrey Monk(山区天气信息服务)通过一系列案例研究概述了预测山区天气的挑战。不列颠群岛复杂的海岸线和山地地形对英国的天气有重大影响,经常造成显着的局部变化——有时在几公里之内。山区的条件往往远远超出“城市生活”的正常条件。预测需要以易于理解的方式向经验丰富的登山者和前往更受欢迎的山坡的休闲游客提供信息,从而希望能够采取适当的行动。演讲重点关注最近的案例研究,包括一些非常困难的预测,并说明了如何最好地呈现现有信息。

系列会谈结束后,会议以约 20 人参加了 90 分钟的亚瑟王宝座徒步导览活动结束(图 1)。在参观过程中,参与者了解了爱丁堡及其周边克雷格的关键标志性火山的复杂地质形成和演化。一系列火山喷发和缓慢的变化,包括大约 30 000 至 16 000 年前苏格兰最后一次扩张的冰川溪流所带来的火山爆发和最近时期的连续侵蚀,共同塑造了我们所看到的景观今天。

详细信息位于图片后面的标题中
图1
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会议结束时,在导游的带领下步行游览爱丁堡亚瑟王座山顶附近的演讲者。

演讲者涵盖的各种主题以及在爱丁堡死火山中心的徒步旅行使这次会议成为一次独特的活动,其中有关科学的事实和在微型山上亲身体验天气都让我们想起了山脉对于我们的未来和生活具有重要意义。

更新日期:2023-10-16
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