This paper shows that the cross-country diffusion of innovations forms a critical channel through which macroeconomic shocks are transmitted across economies. This inference is obtained from a two country, medium scale DSGE model that includes an endogenous growth mechanism. R&D activity and innovation are the main components of this mechanism and they are introduced through a labor-augmenting technology. The model features international diffusion of technologies as the innovations by a firm are not only adopted by other firms within a country but also by those in the other country. Estimating the model with US and Euro Area data, I observe that foreign shocks contribute a high share to the macroeconomic volatility in each economy. By contrast, foreign shocks make a negligible contribution when the model is estimated after shutting down technology diffusion. The results, more generally, show that it is not technology shocks, nor any other shock, but the transmission of shocks through the diffusion of new technologies that is the key driver of international business cycles.

本文表明，创新的跨国扩散形成了宏观经济冲击在各个经济体之间传播的关键渠道。这一推论是从包含内生增长机制的两国中等规模 DSGE 模型中得出的。研发活动和创新是这一机制的主要组成部分，它们是通过劳动力增强技术引入的。该模型的特点是技术的国际传播，因为一家公司的创新不仅被一个国家内的其他公司采用，而且也被另一个国家的公司采用。根据美国和欧元区的数据估计模型，我发现外国冲击对每个经济体的宏观经济波动贡献很大。相比之下，当模型在关闭技术扩散后进行估计时，外国冲击的贡献可以忽略不计。更广泛地说，结果表明，国际经济周期的关键驱动力不是技术冲击，也不是任何其他冲击，而是通过新技术扩散传播冲击。