Financial shocks generate a protracted and quantitatively important effect on real economic activity and financial markets only if the shocks are both negative and large. Otherwise, their role is quite modest. Financial shocks have become more important for economic fluctuations after 2000 and have contributed substantially to deepening the recessions of 2001 and 2008. The evidence is obtained using a new econometric procedure based on a Vector Moving Average representation that includes a nonlinear function of the financial shock. This method is a contribution of the present work.

中文翻译：

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金融冲击的非线性传导：一些新证据

只有当金融冲击既是负面的又是巨大的时，金融冲击才会对实体经济活动和金融市场产生长期的、数量上重要的影响。否则，他们的作用就相当有限了。2000 年之后，金融冲击对经济波动变得更加重要，并在很大程度上加剧了 2001 年和 2008 年的衰退。证据是使用基于矢量移动平均表示法的新计量经济学程序获得的，其中包括金融冲击的非线性函数。该方法是当前工作的贡献。