In this article, we address the question of electric bus planning and operation under stochastic travel time and energy consumption. Uncertainties in the environment may cause disruptions to the planning and operation of electric buses, and a transportation planner must anticipate such conditions and be able to respond appropriately. One of the preconditions for planning robust strategies is understanding the existence and impact of multiple trade-off scenarios, which is the basis for this study. We model the travel time delays and trip energy consumption using estimated probability density functions and use a stochastic, mixed-integer formulation with chance constraints to evaluate several trade-off scenarios for electric bus fleets under uncertainty. The results show the existence of trade-off scenarios that lead to varying degrees of impacts related to network and environment. Careful fleet planning, dispatch, and charge control enable us to make the balance between these trade-offs and achieve better operational performances under uncertainty.

中文翻译：

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探索随机条件下公共巴士电气化的权衡

在本文中，我们解决了随机出行时间和能源消耗下的电动公交车规划和运营问题。环境的不确定性可能会导致电动公交车的规划和运营中断，交通规划者必须预见到这种情况并能够做出适当的反应。规划稳健策略的前提之一是了解多种权衡场景的存在和影响，这是本研究的基础。我们使用估计的概率密度函数对出行时间延误和出行能耗进行建模，并使用具有机会约束的随机混合整数公式来评估不确定性下电动公交车车队的几种权衡场景。结果表明，存在会导致与网络和环境相关的不同程度影响的权衡场景。仔细的车队规划、调度和充电控制使我们能够在这些权衡之间取得平衡，并在不确定性下实现更好的运营绩效。