We examine the impact of unconditional cash transfers (UCTs) on fertility. We develop a theoretical model that demonstrates how UCTs affect fertility decisions, time allocations for leisure, labor and childrearing, and child health through health spending. We then empirically examine the impact of UCTs on fertility in Pakistan. Our theoretical model suggests that under certain conditions, UCTs are likely to increase fertility if UCTs increase child health regardless of how they affect parental leisure, labor and childrearing time. The empirical results suggest that UCTs have a positive effect on fertility.

中文翻译：

---

无条件现金转移会提高生育率吗？大型项目的经验教训


我们研究了无条件现金转移（UCT）对生育率的影响。我们开发了一个理论模型，展示 UCT 如何通过医疗支出影响生育决策、休闲时间分配、劳动和育儿以及儿童健康。然后，我们实证研究了 UCT 对巴基斯坦生育率的影响。我们的理论模型表明，在某些条件下，如果 UCT 能改善儿童健康，无论 UCT 如何影响父母的休闲、劳动和育儿时间，UCT 都可能会提高生育率。实证结果表明 UCT 对生育力有积极影响。