We estimate, by means of the local projection method, the short to medium-term economic impact of previous pandemics in a sample of 170 countries during the 2000–2018 period. We find that the output effect has been significant (reaching over −2 percent after 5 years) and persistent. The impact has varied across income groups, with pandemics affecting more developed countries through a big negative impact on investment. Moreover, we explored the relevance of fiscal space in affecting the negative economic impact of pandemics. To this end, we constructed new aggregate fiscal space variables based on a principal component analysis that combined several indicators. Results suggest that the initial fiscal landscape of countries was a key ingredient in softening the economic impact of past pandemics. We believe that this paper's findings are useful to inform policymakers about what can be expected in the new normal that is following the recent COVID-19 pandemic, particularly in a context of increasingly constrained fiscal space.

中文翻译：

---

短期流行病和经济动荡：财政空间的作用

我们通过当地预测方法估计了 2000 年至 2018 年期间历次流行病对 170 个国家样本的中短期经济影响。我们发现产出效应非常显着（5年后达到-2%以上）并且持续。不同收入群体的影响各不相同，流行病通过对投资产生巨大的负面影响来影响较发达国家。此外，我们探讨了财政空间在影响流行病负面经济影响方面的相关性。为此，我们基于结合多个指标的主成分分析构建了新的总体财政空间变量。结果表明，各国最初的财政状况是减轻过去流行病经济影响的关键因素。我们认为，本文的研究结果有助于让政策制定者了解在最近的 COVID-19 大流行之后的新常态中可以期待什么，特别是在财政空间日益受限的背景下。