Wildfires are disturbances that occur in ecosystems, both naturally and derived from anthropogenic factors, often caused by extreme meteorological conditions, and have recurrently destructive impacts on forests throughout the world. The complex nature of the interactions between wildfires, their dynamics, and human interference from a climate change perspective has motivated a growing number of researchers to address this topic. The fire weather index (FWI) has been extensively used to analyze the link between meteorological fire danger and its local to regional characteristics contributing to the severity of these events, as well as real-time operational monitoring at national and international levels. Recently, a new improved fire danger index that includes the effect of atmospheric instability has been developed, the so-called FWIe. The presence of instability in the atmosphere may be a boost to more energetic wildfires, such as the June 2017 extreme event in central Portugal, making it an important asset in risk monitoring and management. Here, a comprehensive examination of future fire risk on the Iberian Peninsula was performed. Additionally, a comparative analysis between FWI and FWIe was pursued in the context of climate change. We computed both FWI and FWIe using a multi-model ensemble composed of 13 Euro-CORDEX Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations forced by different global climate models. The historical period (1971–2000) and three projected periods of 30 years (2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2 100), under three emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) were considered. When assessing modelled FWI and FWIe, results show that summer values tend to substantially increase in the future when assuming the historical period as the benchmark, with an expected extension of the danger period to June and, in a lower magnitude, to September. The north-western region of Iberia, including the north of Portugal and the north-western-to-central Spain are the regions with larger increases in danger in the future, which may be critical since these are the regions with more fire-prone vegetation. This work also points to large differences in fire danger projections among scenarios, calling for a distinct set of adaptation needs that should be timely prepared by stakeholders and authorities.

野火是生态系统中自然发生的和人为因素造成的干扰，通常是由极端气象条件引起的，并对世界各地的森林造成经常性的破坏性影响。从气候变化的角度来看，野火、其动态和人类干扰之间相互作用的复杂性促使越来越多的研究人员致力于解决这个话题。火灾天气指数（FWI）已被广泛用于分析气象火灾危险与其导致这些事件严重程度的当地到区域特征之间的联系，以及国家和国际层面的实时运行监测。最近，开发了一种新的改进的火灾危险指数，其中包括大气不稳定的影响，即所谓的 FWIe。大气中不稳定的存在可能会助长更猛烈的野火，例如 2017 年 6 月葡萄牙中部发生的极端事件，这使其成为风险监测和管理的重要资产。在这里，对伊比利亚半岛未来的火灾风险进行了全面检查。此外，在气候变化的背景下对 FWI 和 FWIe 进行了比较分析。我们使用由不同全球气候模型强制执行的 13 个 Euro-CORDEX 区域气候模型 (RCM) 模拟组成的多模型集合计算了 FWI 和 FWIe。三种排放情景（RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5）下的历史时期（1971-2000年）和30年的三个预测时期（2011-2040年、2041-2070年和2071-2100年）经过考虑的。在评估 FWI 和 FWIe 模型时，结果显示，以历史时期为基准，未来夏季的价值往往会大幅增加，预计危险期将延长至 6 月，幅度较小的情况下，将延长至 9 月。伊比利亚半岛西北部地区，包括葡萄牙北部和西班牙西北部到中部地区，是未来危险增加幅度较大的地区，这一点可能至关重要，因为这些地区植被更容易发生火灾。 。这项工作还指出，不同情景的火灾危险预测存在巨大差异，呼吁利益相关者和当局应及时准备一套独特的适应需求。