Recent survey evidence reveals misaligned inflation expectations among economic agents. While households associate higher expected inflation with lower output growth, professional forecasters link higher future inflation to higher output growth. Firms’ expectations display neither negative nor positive correlations. We explain such patterns in a general equilibrium New Keynesian framework. Asymmetric information arises naturally as (i) households and firms receive imperfect, asymmetric information about supply and demand shocks, and (ii) the central bank learns from equilibrium outcomes (i.e., output and inflation) as opposed to the private sector. Survey data help uncover the magnitudes of information frictions among economic agents.

中文翻译：

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信息不对称和通胀预期失调

最近的调查证据显示经济主体之间的通胀预期不一致。虽然家庭将较高的预期通胀与较低的产出增长联系起来，但专业预测者将较高的未来通胀与较高的产出增长联系起来。企业的预期既不呈现负相关，也不呈现正相关。我们在一般均衡新凯恩斯主义框架中解释这种模式。信息不对称自然会出现，因为（i）家庭和企业收到有关供需冲击的不完美、不对称信息，以及（ii）中央银行从均衡结果（即产出和通胀）而不是私营部门中学习。调查数据有助于揭示经济主体之间信息摩擦的严重程度。