Based on the TGVAR framework, this study examined the asymmetrical global spillover effects in the major areas and countries. Our analysis makes the case that the asymmetries in monetary policy are primarily caused by heterogeneity in monetary policy tool shocks, regional and macroeconomic target responses, and disparities in economic conditions and international position among nations. Our findings demonstrate that emerging economies are more vulnerable to monetary policy spillover effects than advanced economies for both quantity-based and price-based monetary policies. Our research also reveals that while the spillover effects on inflation varied considerably, the effects on real GDP are more closely impacted. Without countermeasures, a shock resulting in a uniform cutting of short-term interest rates might cause a recession in the majority of economies while a shock resulting in a rise in the broad money supply could trap some economies in stagflation.

本研究基于TGVAR框架，考察了主要地区和国家的不对称全球溢出效应。我们的分析认为，货币政策的不对称主要是由货币政策工具冲击、区域和宏观经济目标反应的异质性以及各国经济状况和国际地位的差异造成的。我们的研究结果表明，无论是基于数量还是基于价格的货币政策，新兴经济体都比发达经济体更容易受到货币政策溢出效应的影响。我们的研究还表明，虽然对通胀的溢出效应差异很大，但对实际 GDP 的影响更为密切。如果不采取应对措施，导致短期利率统一下调的冲击可能会导致大多数经济体陷入衰退，而导致广义货币供应量增加的冲击可能会使一些经济体陷入滞胀。