In this study, we examined the effectiveness of central bank communications during times of significant adverse shocks. Specifically, we examined how the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) regulated foreign exchange (FX) markets during the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022. Data collected from both the black and authorized FX markets suggested that the content of the NBU's announcements significantly impacted FX market agents. Announcements aimed at maintaining a fixed (floating) FX rate prompted an increase (decrease) in the black market premium in cash transactions. Moreover, the NBU's announcements influenced the sale side of foreign currency more than any other aspect, an area where the black market FX traders held near monopolistic power.

中文翻译：

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枪声中可以听到央行的声音吗？

在这项研究中，我们研究了在重大不利冲击时期央行沟通的有效性。具体来说，我们研究了乌克兰国家银行 (NBU) 在 2022 年俄乌战争期间如何监管外汇 (FX) 市场。从黑市和授权外汇市场收集的数据表明，NBU 公告的内容对外汇市场产生了重大影响市场代理商。旨在维持固定（浮动）汇率的公告促使黑市现金交易溢价增加（减少）。此外，NBU 的公告对外汇销售方面的影响超过其他任何方面，而黑市外汇交易商在这一领域几乎拥有垄断权力。