Background

Updated epidemiological data of neuroendocrine tumors are currently lacking. Thus, we performed epidemiological and survival analyses on a large cohort of patients with neuroendocrine tumors and developed a new nomogram to predict survival.

Methods

This population-based study examined 112,256 patients with neuroendocrine tumors between 2000 and 2018 using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program.

Results

The age-adjusted incidence per 100,000 persons of neuroendocrine tumors increased from 4.90 in 2000 to 8.19 in 2018 (annual percentage change, 3.40; 95% confidence interval, 3.13–3.67), with the most significant increases in grade 1, localized stage, and appendix neuroendocrine tumors. The age-adjusted mortality rate increased 3.1-fold from 2000 to 2018 (annual percentage change, 4.14; 95% confidence interval, 3.14–5.15). The 1-, 5-, and 10-year relative survival rates for all neuroendocrine tumors were 80.5%, 68.4%, and 63.5%, respectively. Multivariate analyses showed that male sex; older age; Black, American Indian, and Alaska Native populations; earlier year of diagnosis; lung neuroendocrine tumors; higher grades; and later stage were associated with a worse prognosis and that disease stage and grade were the most important risk factors for prognosis. Furthermore, we established a nomogram to predict the 3-, 5-, and 10-year survival rates, and its discrimination ability was better than that of the TNM classification.

Conclusions

The incidence, prevalence, and mortality rate of neuroendocrine tumors continued to increase over the last two decades. Additionally, the nomogram could accurately quantify the risk of death in patients with neuroendocrine tumors and had good clinical practicability.

中文翻译：

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过去二十年美国神经内分泌肿瘤患者的流行病学趋势及与总生存相关的因素

背景

目前缺乏神经内分泌肿瘤的最新流行病学数据。因此，我们对一大群神经内分泌肿瘤患者进行了流行病学和生存分析，并开发了一种新的列线图来预测生存。

方法

这项基于人群的研究使用来自监测、流行病学和最终结果计划的数据，对 2000 年至 2018 年间 112,256 名神经内分泌肿瘤患者进行了检查。

结果

每 10 万人中年龄调整的神经内分泌肿瘤发病率从 2000 年的 4.90 增加到 2018 年的 8.19（年百分比变化，3.40；95% 置信区间，3.13-3.67），其中 1 级、局部期和阑尾神经内分泌肿瘤。从 2000 年到 2018 年，年龄调整死亡率增加了 3.1 倍（年百分比变化，4.14；95% 置信区间，3.14-5.15）。所有神经内分泌肿瘤的 1 年、5 年和 10 年相对生存率分别为 80.5%、68.4% 和 63.5%。多变量分析表明，男性；年龄较大；黑人、美洲印第安人和阿拉斯加原住民；诊断的较早年份；肺神经内分泌肿瘤；更高的成绩；分期较晚与预后较差相关，并且疾病分期和分级是预后最重要的危险因素。此外，我们建立了列线图来预测3年、5年和10年生存率，其区分能力优于TNM分类。

结论

神经内分泌肿瘤的发病率、患病率和死亡率在过去二十年中持续增加。此外，列线图可以准确量化神经内分泌肿瘤患者的死亡风险，具有良好的临床实用性。