Unlike developed countries, we find a bell-shaped curve for the average frequency of depressive symptoms from the Indonesian Family Life Survey where the same people are followed over 14 years (2000–2014). This incidence is at a high level around the age of 60 and lower for younger and older people. If we may assume that a high incidence of depressive symptoms goes together with a low average of mental health then we may conclude that the average mental health is at at a low level around 60 and higher for younger and older people (U-shape). In addition, we provide evidence for the first time that positive future expectations of one’s physical health significantly reduces incidence of depressive symptoms after accounting for reverse causality. This is however contingent on gender as optimistic health expectation is effective for male but not for female. This effect is also more pronounced for those 60 years and below as well as urban residents. However, the association of health optimism with incidence of depressive symptoms weakens with age. Results from this paper show that a focus on rural/urban residency, younger and older age cohorts and gender can provide targeted social policies to effectively promote better mental health.

与发达国家不同，我们在印度尼西亚家庭生活调查中发现了抑郁症状平均频率的钟形曲线，该调查对同一个人进行了 14 年（2000 年至 2014 年）的跟踪调查。60 岁左右的发病率较高，年轻人和老年人的发病率较低。如果我们假设抑郁症状的高发病率与平均心理健康水平较低有关，那么我们可以得出结论，年轻人和老年人的平均心理健康水平处于 60 左右甚至更高的较低水平（U 型）。此外，我们首次提供证据表明，在考虑了反向因果关系后，对身体健康的积极未来预期可显着降低抑郁症状的发生率。然而，这取决于性别，因为乐观的健康预期对男性有效，但对女性无效。对于60岁及以下人群以及城市居民来说，这种影响也更为明显。然而，健康乐观情绪与抑郁症状发生率的关联随着年龄的增长而减弱。本文的结果表明，关注农村/城市居住、年轻和老年群体以及性别可以提供有针对性的社会政策，以有效促进更好的心理健康。