This paper introduces an area-level Poisson mixed model with SAR(1) spatially correlated random effects. Small area predictors of proportions and counts are derived from the new model and the corresponding mean squared errors are estimated by parametric bootstrap. The behaviour of the introduced predictors is empirically investigated by running model-based simulation experiments. An application to real data from the Spanish living conditions survey of Galicia (Spain) is given. The target is the estimation of domain proportions of women under the poverty line.

中文翻译：

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空间泊松混合模型下比例和计数的小区域预测

本文介绍了具有 SAR(1) 空间相关随机效应的区域级泊松混合模型。比例和计数的小面积预测变量是从新模型中导出的，并通过参数引导来估计相应的均方误差。通过运行基于模型的模拟实验对引入的预测变量的行为进行实证研究。给出了对西班牙加利西亚（西班牙）生活条件调查实际数据的应用。目标是估计贫困线以下妇女的比例。