The common impala (Aepyceros melampus melampus), a medium-sized herbivore in Eastern and Southern African savannahs, faces challenges from climate change. Using a species distribution model, we found temperature of the driest quarter (30.32%) and wettest month precipitation (20.36%) as the most influential factors. Surprisingly, land cover change had less impact (0.25%). Projections suggest a significant habitat reduction for impalas by 2050, with estimated losses of 18.12% (SSP-126) and 25.62% (SSP-585). These findings highlight climate change and land cover alterations as potential threats to impala survival, impacting crucial resources like forage and water. This research guides conservation efforts for common impala.

中文翻译：

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对非洲斑羚（Aepyceros melampus melampus）在非洲不断变化的气候中的潜在分布进行建模

黑斑羚（Aepyceros melampus melampus）是东部和南部非洲大草原上的一种中型食草动物，面临着气候变化的挑战。使用物种分布模型，我们发现最干燥季度的温度（30.32%）和最湿月降水量（20.36%）是影响最大的因素。令人惊讶的是，土地覆盖变化的影响较小（0.25%）。预测表明，到 2050 年，黑斑羚的栖息地将大幅减少，估计损失为 18.12% (SSP-126) 和 25.62% (SSP-585)。这些发现强调气候变化和土地覆盖变化对黑斑羚生存构成潜在威胁，影响饲料和水等重要资源。这项研究指导普通黑斑羚的保护工作。