This paper estimates the distribution-led regime of the US economy for the period 1947–2019. We use a time varying parameter model, which allows for continuous changes in the regime over time. To the best of our knowledge this is the first paper that has attempted to do this. This innovation is important, because there is no reason to expect that the regime of the US economy (or any economy for that matter) will remain constant over time. On the contrary, there are significant reasons that point to changes in the regime. We find that the US economy became more profit-led in the first postwar decades until the 1970s and has become less profit-led since. In the last fifteen years of our sample the effect of changes in distribution on economic activity is statistically insignificant.

中文翻译：

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估计时变分布主导的机制

本文估计了 1947 年至 2019 年期间美国经济的分配主导体制。我们使用时变参数模型，该模型允许随时间的推移而连续变化。据我们所知，这是第一篇尝试这样做的论文。这种创新很重要，因为没有理由期望美国经济（或任何相关经济体）的体制会随着时间的推移保持不变。相反，有一些重要的原因表明政权会发生变化。我们发现，美国经济在战后最初几十年直至 20 世纪 70 年代变得更加以利润为导向，此后利润导向逐渐减弱。在我们的样本的过去十五年中，分配变化对经济活动的影响在统计上是微不足道的。