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Quantifying Multi-hazards and Impacts Over Different Growth Periods of Maize: A Study Based on Index Construction
International Journal of Disaster Risk Science ( IF 4 ) Pub Date : 2023-10-31 , DOI: 10.1007/s13753-023-00516-8
Dan Chen , Ying Guo , Rui Wang , Yunmeng Zhao , Kaiwei Li , Jiquan Zhang , Xingpeng Liu , Zhijun Tong , Chunli Zhao

Owing to the complexity and variability of global climate, the study of extreme events to ensure food security is particularly critical. The standardized precipitation requirement index (SPRI) and chilling injury index (ICi) were introduced using data from agrometeorological stations on the Songliao Plain between 1981 and 2020 to identify the spatial and temporal variability of drought, waterlogging, and low-temperature cold damage during various maize growth periods. Compound drought and low-temperature cold damage events (CDLEs) and compound waterlogging and low-temperature cold damage events (CWLEs) were then identified. To measure the intensity of compound events, the compound drought and low-temperature cold damage magnitude index (CDLMI), and compound waterlogging and low-temperature cold damage magnitude index (CWLMI) were constructed by fitting marginal distributions. Finally, the effects of extreme events of various intensities on maize output were examined. The findings demonstrate that: (1) There were significant differences in the temporal trends of the SPRI and ICi during different maize growth periods. Drought predominated in the middle growth period (MP), waterlogging predominated in the early growth period (EP) and late growth period (LP), and both drought and waterlogging tended to increase in intensity and frequency. The frequency of low-temperature cold damage showed a decreasing trend in all periods. (2) The CDLMI and CWLMI can effectively determine the intensity of CDLEs and CWLEs in the study area; these CDLEs and CWLEs had higher intensity and frequency in the late growth period. (3) Compared to single events, maize relative meteorological yield had a more significant negative correlation with the CDLMI and CWLMI.



中文翻译:

量化玉米不同生育期的多重灾害和影响:基于指数构建的研究

由于全球气候的复杂性和多变性,对极端事件的研究对于确保粮食安全显得尤为重要。利用1981—2020年松辽平原农业气象站数据,引入标准化降水需求指数(SPRI)和冷害指数(I Ci ),识别松辽平原干旱、涝害和低温冷害的时空变化特征不同的玉米生育期。然后确定了复合干旱和低温冷害事件(CDLE)和复合涝和低温冷害事件(CWLE)。为了衡量复合事件的强度,通过拟合边际分布构建了干旱和低温冷害复合强度指数(CDLMI)和涝渍和低温冷害复合强度指数(CWLMI)。最后,研究了不同强度的极端事件对玉米产量的影响。研究结果表明:(1)不同玉米生育期SPRI和I Ci的时间趋势存在显着差异。生育中期(MP)干旱为主,生育前期(EP)和生育后期(LP)涝害为主,且干旱和涝害的强度和频率均呈增加趋势。各时期低温冷害发生频率均呈下降趋势。(2) CDLMI和CWLMI可以有效判断研究区CDLE和CWLE的强度;这些CDLE和CWLE在生长后期具有较高的强度和频率。(3)与单事件相比,玉米相对气象产量与CDLMI和CWLMI呈更显着的负相关。

更新日期:2023-11-01
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