This paper examines the effects of increasing the compulsory school leaving age from 16 to 18 in Hungary using a difference-in-regression-discontinuities design empirical strategy. While the reform increased the length of schooling, it did not decrease the probability of dropping out of secondary school, either on average or among the most at-risk group of Roma ethnic minority students. Due to grade retentions, marginal students were older than their peers and couldn't have reached the final grade of secondary school by age 18 to earn a degree. The reform also did not affect the probability of employment, hours worked, wages and the probability of working in low-skilled occupations at ages 20 and 25. In education systems that allow grade retention, compulsory education should have the explicit goal of keeping students in school until they earn a secondary degree, rather than just until a certain age.

本文采用差异回归间断设计实证策略，研究了匈牙利将义务教育离校年龄从 16 岁提高到 18 岁的影响。虽然改革延长了受教育年限，但并没有降低中学辍学的可能性，无论是平均辍学率还是高危罗姆族少数族裔学生群体的辍学率。由于保留成绩，边缘学生的年龄比同龄人大，无法在 18 岁之前达到中学最终成绩并获得学位。改革也没有影响20岁和25岁的就业概率、工作时间、工资以及从事低技能职业的概率。在允许保留成绩的教育体系中，义务教育应该有一个明确的目标，即让学生留在学校学校直到他们获得中学学位，而不是仅仅到某个年龄。