This study investigates the impact of firm-specific uncertainty on innovation performance and how alliances moderate this relationship in the pharmaceutical industry. To reflect drug research and development (R&D) characteristics, we separate the alliance stage into “preclinical research” and “drug development,” and examine the effects of alliances with different partner types (public and private). An integrated firm-level dataset was created for empirical analysis by combining financial, alliance, patent, and new product data from 96 US pharmaceutical firms. We found that while a firm's uncertainty does not always significantly impact alliance activities, it positively influences certain innovation performance (new products). Furthermore, we probe the moderating effect of alliances on the relationship between uncertainty and innovation performance. The results revealed that alliances with public organizations strengthened the relationship in the “preclinical stage”; however, there was no significant effect in the “drug development” stage. Also, alliances with private firms even negatively moderates in “drug development stage” in some innovation performance. This study provides novel evidence that alliances can mitigate or exacerbate innovation performance depending on the alliance stage and partner type.

本研究调查了公司特定的不确定性对创新绩效的影响以及联盟如何调节制药行业的这种关系。为了反映药物研发（R&D）特点，我们将联盟阶段分为“临床前研究”和“药物开发”，并考察与不同合作伙伴类型（公共和私人）联盟的效果。通过结合 96 家美国制药公司的财务、联盟、专利和新产品数据，创建了一个综合的公司级数据集，用于实证分析。我们发现，虽然公司的不确定性并不总是对联盟活动产生重大影响，但它会对某些创新绩效（新产品）产生积极影响。此外，我们探讨了联盟对不确定性与创新绩效之间关系的调节作用。结果显示，与公共组织的联盟加强了“临床前阶段”的关系；但在“药物研发”阶段却没有明显效果。此外，与私营企业的联盟甚至会对“药物开发阶段”的某些创新绩效产生负面影响。这项研究提供了新的证据，表明联盟可以根据联盟阶段和合作伙伴类型减轻或加剧创新绩效。