The adoption of photovoltaic (PV) systems has increased significantly in recent years, driven by the demand for off-grid and on-grid residential and commercial applications. However, the high initial investment required for PV installations has limited their widespread adoption. Governments and marketing enterprises have implemented different strategies to promote PV systems to overcome this barrier, focusing on the return on investment (ROI) concept. However, the conventional approach uses limited economic factors to calculate the ROI. It fails to consider the impact of external factors, such as system degradation, which can vary between systems. To address this issue, we propose a new methodology to estimate the ROI of a photovoltaic system with greater accuracy. Our approach incorporates system-predicted degradation, calculated using historical meteorological data and prediction techniques. We applied this methodology to a photovoltaic system installed at the Universidad Tecnologica de Bolivar (UTB) in Cartagena and evaluated it against five different approaches. The results show that our proposed method offers a more accurate and reliable estimation of the ROI of a photovoltaic system, considering a broader range of factors. Overall, our work contributes to advancing the understanding of photovoltaic system ROI calculation and promotes using sustainable energy sources. By providing a more precise estimation of the ROI of a photovoltaic system, our methodology can help potential investors make more informed decisions and promote the adoption of clean energy sources.

中文翻译：

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退化对光伏系统投资回报的长期影响

近年来，受离网和并网住宅及商业应用需求的推动，光伏（PV）系统的采用显着增加。然而，光伏安装所需的高额初始投资限制了其广泛采用。政府和营销企业实施了不同的策略来推动光伏系统克服这一障碍，重点关注投资回报（ROI）概念。然而，传统方法使用有限的经济因素来计算投资回报率。它没有考虑外部因素的影响，例如系统降级，系统降级可能因系统而异。为了解决这个问题，我们提出了一种新的方法来更准确地估计光伏系统的投资回报率。我们的方法结合了系统预测的退化，使用历史气象数据和预测技术进行计算。我们将此方法应用于安装在卡塔赫纳玻利瓦尔科技大学 (UTB) 的光伏系统，并根据五种不同的方法对其进行了评估。结果表明，考虑到更广泛的因素，我们提出的方法可以更准确、更可靠地估计光伏系统的投资回报率。总的来说，我们的工作有助于增进对光伏系统投资回报率计算的理解，并促进使用可持续能源。通过更准确地估计光伏系统的投资回报率，我们的方法可以帮助潜在投资者做出更明智的决策并促进清洁能源的采用。