Several spiny leguminous tree species within the genus Neltuma Raf. (formerly Prosopis L.) (Fabaceae) occur as widespread invasive alien plants in South Africa, exerting severe negative socio-economic and ecological impacts. Given these impacts, South Africa recently released the leaf-tying moth Agnippe sp. #1 (syn. Evippe sp. #1) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) as a biological control agent against invasive Neltuma species in 2021. The widespread invasion of Neltuma spp. across a vast and climatically diverse range of South Africa has led to concerns regarding the establishment and impact of the agent. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the constraints posed by climate to the potential establishment and efficacy of Agnippe sp. #1 using both climatic matching (CLIMEX) and thermal-physiology assessments. Climatic analyses revealed relatively high (71%) and moderate (66%) matches of South Africa to the native (Argentina) and introduced (Australia) ranges of Agnippe sp. #1 respectively. Thermal assessments of Agnippe sp. #1, particularly the 4^th instar larvae, determined a CT_min = 0.9 ± 0.3 °C and LLT₅₀ = −11.1 ± 0.4 °C, which suggest the moth is suited mainly to warmer regions of South Africa. Overall, these assessments propose that the establishment and performance of Agnippe sp. #1 is likely to be constrained by climate in parts of South Africa, particularly within the cold semi-arid and temperate provinces of the country. Promisingly, these climatic comparisons suggest that Agnippe sp. #1 may become more widely established in the hottest parts of the Northern Cape province, which remains a major biological control target region for Mesquite in South Africa.

Neltuma Raf属内的几种带刺豆科树种。（原Prosopis L.）（豆科）作为南非广泛存在的外来入侵植物，对社会经济和生态产生严重的负面影响。鉴于这些影响，南非最近释放了结叶蛾Agnippe sp.。#1（同义词Evippe sp. #1）（鳞翅目：Gelechiidae）作为 2021 年入侵Neltuma物种的生物防治剂。Neltuma spp . 的广泛入侵。南非幅员辽阔、气候多样，引发了人们对这一代理人的建立和影响的担忧。因此，本研究旨在评估气候对Agnippe sp的潜在建立和功效造成的限制。#1 同时使用气候匹配 (CLIMEX) 和热生理学评估。气候分析显示，南非与Agnippe sp. 的本土（阿根廷）和引进（澳大利亚）范围的匹配度相对较高（71%）和中等（66%）。分别#1。Agnippe sp的热评估。#1，特别是第 4^龄幼虫，确定 CT _min  = 0.9 ± 0.3 °C 和 LLT ₅₀  = -11.1 ± 0.4 °C，这表明该蛾主要适合南非较温暖的地区。总的来说，这些评估表明Agnippe sp 的建立和表现。#1 可能受到南非部分地区气候的限制，特别是在该国寒冷的半干旱和温带省份。令人鼓舞的是，这些气候比较表明Agnippe sp。#1 可能会在北开普省最热的地区更广泛地建立，该省仍然是南非梅斯基特的主要生物控制目标地区。