In this paper, the natural rate of interest in Denmark, Norway and Sweden is estimated. This is done by augmenting the Laubach and Williams (Rev Econ Stat 85:1063–1070, 2003) framework with a dynamic factor model linked to economic indicators––a modelling choice which allows us to better identify business cycle fluctuations. We estimate the model using Bayesian methods on data ranging from 1990Q1 to 2022Q4. The results indicate that the natural rate has declined substantially and in all countries is at a low level at the end of the sample.

中文翻译：

---

自然利率的演变：来自斯堪的纳维亚国家的证据

本文估计了丹麦、挪威和瑞典的自然利率。这是通过使用与经济指标相关的动态因素模型来增强劳巴赫和威廉姆斯（Rev Econ Stat 85:1063–1070, 2003）框架来完成的——这种模型选择使我们能够更好地识别经济周期波动。我们使用贝叶斯方法对 1990 年第一季度到 2022 年第四季度的数据进行模型估计。结果表明，自然利率大幅下降，并且在样本结束时所有国家都处于较低水平。