We investigate the bilateral relationship between government budget balances and current account balances for Germany and Portugal. We find that the response of the current account balance to the budget balance is greater in Portugal than in Germany. On the other hand, the response of the budget balance to the current balance is higher in Germany than in Portugal. In Germany and Portugal, a fiscal rules index has a negative impact on the current account balance and the government effectiveness index has a positive impact on the government balance. The public debt-to-GDP ratio positively affects the current account balance in Portugal while the output gap has a negative influence, and that is not the case in Germany. During the period of implementation of the external assistance programme in Portugal, the current account balance improved, while the government balance did not. Finally, Germany's output gap positively influences Portugal's fiscal position.

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财政和经常账户失衡：德国和葡萄牙的案例

我们调查了德国和葡萄牙政府预算余额与经常账户余额之间的双边关系。我们发现，葡萄牙经常账户余额对预算余额的反应大于德国。另一方面，德国预算平衡对当前平衡的反应高于葡萄牙。在德国和葡萄牙，财政规则指数对经常账户余额产生负面影响，而政府效率指数对政府余额产生正面影响。公共债务与 GDP 的比率对葡萄牙的经常账户余额产生积极影响，而产出缺口则产生负面影响，而德国的情况并非如此。葡萄牙实施外部援助计划期间，经常账户余额有所改善，但政府余额却没有改善。最后，德国的产出缺口对葡萄牙的财政状况产生积极影响。