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Long-term statistics of atmospheric conditions over the Baltic Sea and meteorological features related to wind wave extremes in the Gulf of Gdańsk
Oceanologia ( IF 2.9 ) Pub Date : 2023-11-07 , DOI: 10.1016/j.oceano.2023.10.002
Witold Cieślikiewicz , Aleksandra Cupiał

The goal of this study is to describe wind wave climate and wave extremes of the Gulf of Gdańsk in the southern Baltic Sea and associated meteorological conditions over the Baltic Sea. We obtain the characteristic features of 34 severe historical storms in the Gulf of Gdańsk during the period 1958–2001 and link them with extreme significant wave heights hindcast for five grid points in this gulf. The long-term statistics of atmospheric pressure systems over central and northern Europe, and the north-eastern Atlantic Ocean are derived from a 44-year REMO reanalysis database. A link between the mean, minimum and variability range of atmospheric pressure has been quantified. In general, the higher the mean pressure the smaller its variability and vice versa. Long-term characteristic features of winds over the Baltic Sea have been estimated from the REMO database. Strong winds directions vary from W, WSW to SW in the southern Baltic to more southerly SSW directions in the northern part of the Baltic Sea. The Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) analysis shows that more than 50% of the variability in the atmospheric pressure in the Baltic Sea can be explained by the first EOF mode. The first four EOF modes can reproduce above 90% variability of the hindcast pressure time series. Statistical properties of the hindcast significant wave height over the Gulf of Gdańsk are computed based on the 44-year HIPOCAS database. All the computed statistics of wave heights reveal a very strong sheltering effect caused by the Hel Peninsula.



中文翻译:

波罗的海大气状况和格但斯克湾极端风浪相关气象特征的长期统计

本研究的目的是描述波罗的海南部格但斯克湾的风浪气候和极端波浪以及波罗的海的相关气象条件。我们获得了 1958 年至 2001 年期间格但斯克湾 34 次严重历史风暴的特征,并将它们与该海湾五个网格点的极端有效波高后预报联系起来。中欧、北欧以及东北大西洋大气压力系统的长期统计数据来自44年的REMO再分析数据库。大气压力的平均值、最小值和变化范围之间的联系已被量化。一般来说,平均压力越高,其变异性越小,反之亦然。波罗的海风的长期特征已根据 REMO 数据库进行了估计。波罗的海南部的强风方向为 W、WSW 至 SW,而波罗的海北部则为偏南的 SSW 方向。经验正交函数 (EOF) 分析表明,波罗的海 50% 以上的大气压力变化可以通过第一 EOF 模式来解释。前四种 EOF 模式可以重现后报压力时间序列的 90% 以上的变异性。格但斯克湾后报有效波高的统计特性是根据 44 年的 HIPOCAS 数据库计算的。所有波高的计算统计数据都揭示了赫尔半岛造成的非常强的遮挡效应。

更新日期:2023-11-11
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