Many warnings issued to members of the public are deterministic in that they do not include event likelihood information. This is true of the current polygon-based tornado warning used by the American National Weather Service, although the likelihood of a tornado varies within the boundaries of the polygon. To test whether adding likelihood information benefits end users, two experimental studies and one in-person interview study were conducted. The experimental studies compared five probabilistic formats, two with color and three with numeric probabilities alone, to the deterministic polygon. In both experiments, probabilistic formats led to better understanding of tornado likelihood and higher trust than the polygon alone, although color-coding led to several misunderstandings. When the polygon boundary was drawn at 10% chance, those using probabilistic formats made fewer correct shelter decisions at low probabilities and more correct shelter decisions at high probabilities compared to those using the deterministic warning, although overall decision quality, operationalized as expected value, did not differ. However, when the polygon boundary was drawn around 30%, participants with probabilistic forecasts had higher expected value. The interview study revealed that, although tornado-experienced individuals would not shelter at 10% chance, they would take intermediate actions, such as information-seeking and sharing. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

中文翻译：

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概率性龙卷风警报对风险认知和应对措施的影响。

许多向公众发出的警告都是确定性的，因为它们不包括事件可能性信息。美国国家气象局当前使用的基于多边形的龙卷风警报就是如此，尽管龙卷风的可能性在多边形的边界内有所不同。为了测试添加可能性信息是否有利于最终用户，进行了两项实验研究和一项面对面访谈研究。实验研究将五种概率格式（两种带有颜色，三种仅带有数字概率）与确定性多边形进行了比较。在这两个实验中，概率格式比单独的多边形更好地理解了龙卷风的可能性和更高的信任度，尽管颜色编码导致了一些误解。当以 10% 的机会绘制多边形边界时，与使用确定性警告的人相比，使用概率格式的人在低概率下做出的正确避难所决策较少，在高概率下做出的避难所决策更正确，尽管整体决策质量（按预期值进行操作）确实有所提高。没有区别。然而，当多边形边界绘制在30%左右时，进行概率预测的参与者具有更高的期望值。访谈研究显示，虽然经历过龙卷风的人有 10% 的几率不会避难，但他们会采取中间行动，例如信息查找和分享。（PsycInfo 数据库记录 (c) 2023 APA，保留所有权利）。