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Vulnerability of communities' livelihoods to the impacts of climate change in north-western highlands of Tanzania
Environmental Development ( IF 5.4 ) Pub Date : 2023-11-11 , DOI: 10.1016/j.envdev.2023.100939
Edmund B. Mabhuye

Climate change has emerged as one of the critical challenges to human well-being. Changing climate places direct and indirect impacts on human activities and is mainly triggered by non-climatic stressors, which are diverse and inherent in many communities. However, there has been diversity in how climate and non-climatic stress factors affect human well-being and thus requiring locally specific contextualisation of how climate change is driving change in many ecosystems. This study analysed climate and non-climate factors for communities' vulnerability and impacts using a landscape approach in selected villages in the western highlands of Tanzania, specifically in Kasulu and Buhigwe districts in Kigoma Region. The aim was to understand communities' vulnerability to the impacts of climate, and non-climate processes, particularly with regard to livelihoods and impacts, particularly in forest resources. Study sites and respondents were selected through simple random and purposive sampling methods. Data were collected through household surveys, key informants interviews, and focus group discussions. Meteorological data were used for the analysis of climatic changes. Quantitative data analysis tools included meteorological statistics software such as CLIDATA, INSTAT, XLSTAT and SPSS. Theme-content analysis was used to analyse qualitative data. Findings indicate inter-annual and seasonal variabilities of rainfall and temperature levels from the normal across the study sites. The study revealed significant increasing trends for mean annual Maximum and Minimum temperature. Significant changes in rainfall patterns were decreasing seasonal and annual rainfall trends, unreliable onset and cessation, and erratic seasonal rainfall. The maximum decline of seasonal rainfall had slope values of −14.51, while the maximum decline of annual rainfall trends had a slope value of −12.76. The minimum decline for seasonal rainfall had slope values of −2.17, and annual rainfall trends had slope values of −1.36. Villages in the highland zone were found to be highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and non-climate stress factors, with a 0.61 vulnerability index value. Major climate stress factors for communities' vulnerability included seasonal variability of rainfall and temperature increase, which influenced the increase of pests and diseases and other unfavourable climatic conditions that affect crop production and livestock keeping. The effects, directly and indirectly, influenced the low agricultural yields and decreased income. Non-climate stress factors such as landscape characteristics, mobility, inadequate extension services, and low household asset endowment might have been accelerating communities' vulnerability to the effects of the changing climate. Moreover, the study shows the climate change on a community's resilience. Generally, changes in climate conditions result in many adverse consequences and have been influencing communities' vulnerability.

中文翻译:

坦桑尼亚西北高地社区生计对气候变化影响的脆弱性

气候变化已成为人类福祉面临的重大挑战之一。气候变化对人类活动产生直接和间接影响,主要由非气候压力因素引发,这些压力因素多种多样,是许多社区固有的。然而,气候和非气候压力因素如何影响人类福祉存在多样性,因此需要根据当地具体情况来了解气候变化如何推动许多生态系统的变化。本研究采用景观方法分析了坦桑尼亚西部高地选定村庄(特别是基戈马地区的卡苏鲁和布希格韦地区)的气候和非气候因素对社区脆弱性和影响的影响。目的是了解社区对气候和非气候过程影响的脆弱性,特别是在生计和影响方面,特别是在森林资源方面。研究地点和受访者是通过简单的随机和有目的的抽样方法选择的。通过家庭调查、关键知情人访谈和焦点小组讨论收集数据。气象数据用于分析气候变化。定量数据分析工具包括CLIDATA、INSTAT、XLSTAT、SPSS等气象统计软件。主题内容分析用于分析定性数据。研究结果表明,各研究地点的降雨量和温度水平与正常水平存在年际和季节性变化。该研究揭示了年平均最高和最低气温的显着上升趋势。降雨模式的显着变化是季节和年度降雨趋势减少、降雨开始和结束不可靠以及季节性降雨不稳定。季节性降雨量最大下降量的斜率值为-14.51,而年降雨量趋势最大下降量的斜率值为-12.76。季节性降雨量的最小下降斜率为 -2.17,年降雨量趋势的斜率为 -1.36。高原地区村庄对气候变化和非气候胁迫因素的影响高度脆弱,脆弱性指数值为0.61。造成社区脆弱性的主要气候压力因素包括降雨量和气温升高的季节性变化,从而影响病虫害的增加以及影响作物生产和牲畜饲养的其他不利气候条件。这些影响直接和间接影响了农业产量低下和收入减少。景观特征、流动性、推广服务不足和家庭资产禀赋较低等非气候压力因素可能加速了社区对气候变化影响的脆弱性。此外,该研究还显示了气候变化对社区复原力的影响。一般来说,
更新日期:2023-11-11
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