Using survey data on consumer inflation expectations in the European Union countries, we investigate the price, macroeconomic, attention, and geopolitical determinants of European consumers’ inflation expectations. We employ panel data regression with both fixed and random effects. We conclude that when consumers in the EU form their expectations regarding future inflation, they are determined not only by past inflation and the general macroeconomic situation, but also by selected attention variables expressing their search queries on the Internet (SVI based on Google Trends), and uncertainty concerning economic policy (EPU) steps and measures. Moreover, our baseline specification also suggests that inflation expectations of consumers in the Central and Eastern European countries are higher than those in Euro Area countries. These findings are robust to multiple specifications using individual survey indicators of expected inflation.

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宏观经济基本面和关注：是什么推动了欧洲消费者的通胀预期？

利用欧盟国家消费者通胀预期的调查数据，我们调查了欧洲消费者通胀预期的价格、宏观经济、关注度和地缘政治决定因素。我们采用具有固定效应和随机效应的面板数据回归。我们的结论是，当欧盟消费者形成对未来通胀的预期时，他​​们不仅取决于过去的通胀和总体宏观经济形势，还取决于他们在互联网上表达搜索查询的选定关注变量（SVI 基于谷歌趋势），以及经济政策（EPU）步骤和措施的不确定性。此外，我们的基准指标还表明，中东欧国家消费者的通胀预期高于欧元区国家。这些发现对于使用预期通胀的个别调查指标的多个规范来说是稳健的。