There is currently a lack of consensus about the nature of strengths in forensic assessments. With 273 justice-involved male youth and a fixed 3-year follow-up, this study adopted the approach of Farrington and colleagues to investigating the nature of associations between trichotomized variables, representing risks and strengths, and outcomes using pairs of odds ratios (ORs) and percentage point changes from base rates. Items from the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY), a structured professional judgment tool used to assess risk and protective factors in justice-involved youth, were employed for this purpose. In the literature, the accuracy of SAVRY summed totals for its Risk Factor item sets (each item rated using a trichotomy) has been generally in the moderate range in predicting future violence. But the total for its summed Protective Factor items (each rated using a dichotomy) has been less consistently encouraging. In this study, contrary to their labels, the majority of SAVRY Risk and Protective Factors (rated using trichotomies) exerted a risk effect at one end of their trichotomy (risk item ratings of 2, protective item ratings of 0) and a promotive effect at the other end (risk item ratings of 0, protective factor ratings of 2) for a new violent (including sexual) offense and any new offense. Subsets of items conservatively weighted using ORs (capturing risk and strength) were statistically significantly more accurate in predicting outcomes than their originally rated counterpart subsets. Implications for understanding the nature of strengths and for applied assessment practices are discussed. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

中文翻译：

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使用 SAVRY 评估工具项目对性犯罪青少年进行促进、混合和风险影响的概念验证研究。

目前，对于法医评估优势的性质缺乏共识。这项研究对 273 名参与正义的男性青年进行了为期 3 年的固定随访，采用了 Farrington 及其同事的方法，利用成对的比值比 (ORs) 来调查代表风险和优势以及结果的三分变量之间关联的性质。 ）以及基准利率的百分点变化。为此目的，采用了青少年暴力风险结构化评估 (SAVRY) 的项目，这是一种结构化专业判断工具，用于评估参与正义的青少年的风险和保护因素。在文献中，SAVRY 的风险因素项目集（使用三分法对每个项目进行评级）的总和准确性在预测未来暴力方面通常处于中等范围内。但其汇总的保护因素项目的总数（每个项目都使用二分法进行评级）一直不太令人鼓舞。在这项研究中，与它们的标签相反，大多数 SAVRY 风险和保护因素（使用三分法进行评级）在其三分法的一端发挥了风险效应（风险项目评级为 2，保护项目评级为 0），并在另一端（风险项目评级为 0，保护因素评级为 2）用于新的暴力（包括性）犯罪和任何新的犯罪。使用 OR（捕获风险和强度）保守加权的项目子集在预测结果方面比其最初评级的对应子集在统计上显着更准确。讨论了理解优势本质和应用评估实践的含义。（PsycInfo 数据库记录 (c) 2023 APA，保留所有权利）。