EU fiscal rules have been suspended until 2024. European policymakers are considering whether to reinstate the existing fiscal rules or to define a new framework. Member States must have enough fiscal space. But the sustainability of public debt must be safeguarded. We use a nonlinear dynamic model to test if a primary balance adjustment rule can preserve debt sustainability in the presence of interactions between fiscal policy, economic growth, and interest rates. We find that a dynamic adjustment rule to changes in debt service can reduce the equilibrium debt ratio, even stabilizing the associated risk premium.

中文翻译：

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非线性、内生性和相互作用：对欧洲预算规则改革的影响

欧盟财政规则已暂停至2024年。欧洲政策制定者正在考虑是否恢复现有财政规则或定义新框架。成员国必须有足够的财政空间。但公共债务的可持续性必须得到保障。我们使用非线性动态模型来测试主要平衡调整规则是否可以在财政政策、经济增长和利率相互作用的情况下保持债务可持续性。我们发现，对偿债变化的动态调整规则可以降低均衡债务比率，甚至稳定相关的风险溢价。