Household water demand has increased dramatically in Kuwait over the last few decades, due to rapid population growth and changing lifestyles. Avoiding a water deficit through a supply-side approach has been the default strategy in Kuwait, yet this approach is unsustainable, associated with declining groundwater levels, and reliance on desalination that results in major carbon emission and environmental impact and that takes a large and growing share of oil revenues. In this study, we forecast household water demand in Kuwait to 2050 under a Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario and evaluate the economic and environmental impacts. A spatial microsimulation, constrained by the national population projection of the Kuwait Institute of Scientific Research (KISR), was developed to overcome data limitations in forecasting household demand. Results show a 45% increase in water demand by 2050, to 664.1 million cubic metres (MCM), relative to the 2019 base year. Annual production costs increase from 1.39 billion USD in 2019 to 1.99 billion USD by 2050, whilst carbon emissions increase from 10.85 to 15.54 million tonnes/year. These results should alert policymakers to the potential impacts of the growing water demand and provide further support for water conservation action to reduce demand.

中文翻译：

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2050年科威特家庭用水需求：空间微观模拟和影响评估

过去几十年来，由于人口快速增长和生活方式的改变，科威特的家庭用水需求急剧增加。通过供应方方法避免水资源短缺一直是科威特的默认策略，但这种方法是不可持续的，因为地下水位下降，并且依赖海水淡化，导致大量碳排放和环境影响，需要大量且不断增长的资金。石油收入的份额。在本研究中，我们在一切照旧 (BAU) 情景下预测了科威特到 2050 年的家庭用水需求，并评估了经济和环境影响。受科威特科学研究所 (KISR) 全国人口预测的限制，开发了空间微观模拟，以克服预测家庭需求的数据限制。结果显示，与 2019 年基准年相比，到 2050 年，需水量将增加 45%，达到 6.641 亿立方米 (MCM)。年生产成本从2019年的13.9亿美元增加到2050年的19.9亿美元，而碳排放量从10.85万吨/年增加到1554万吨/年。这些结果应提醒政策制定者注意不断增长的水需求的潜在影响，并为减少需求的节水行动提供进一步支持。