Abstract

The extreme levels of solar activity on time scales of 300–400 and 9000 years are considered. The total sunspot area \(AR\), a physical index of solar activity, has been estimated using the sunspot number reconstruction from Wu et al. (2018). The main study has been carried out precisely in terms of this index. The variations in solar activity at the epoch of the last 300–400 years represent fairly well its variations on time scales of the order of nine millennia. The maximum level of solar activity for the yearly averages is \(AR_{M}=2930\pm 400\) m.s.h. (millionths of the solar hemisphere). The upper limit for the daily values is \(AR_{M}=7500\pm 2200\) m.s.h. for the traditional sunspot areas corrected for the perspective distortion and \(AR_{OM}=11\,400\pm 3300\) m.s.d. (millionths of the solar disk) for the so-called ‘‘observed’’ areas—the sunspot projections onto the visible solar disk. The maximum yearly averages of the sunspot number \(SN_{M}=258\pm 38\) and the sunspot group number \(GN_{M}=12.3\pm 2.4\) have also been estimated; 11.3\({\%}\) of the time the solar activity is at an extremely high level; 8.5 and 4.5\({\%}\) of the time its level corresponds to the Dalton minimum or lower and an extremely low one, respectively. Thus, extremely high levels are more likely for solar activity than extremely low ones.

中文翻译：

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长时间尺度上太阳黑子活动的极值

摘要

考虑了 300-400 年和 9000 年时间尺度上太阳活动的极端水平。太阳黑子总面积\(AR\)是太阳活动的物理指数，已使用 Wu 等人的太阳黑子数重建进行了估计。（2018）。主要研究就是针对这个指标进行的。过去 300-400 年太阳活动的变化很好地代表了其在九千年量级的时间尺度上的变化。年平均太阳活动的最大水平为\(AR_{M}=2930\pm 400\) msh（太阳半球的百万分之一）。对于校正透视畸变的传统太阳黑子区域，每日值的上限为\(AR_{M}=7500\pm 2200\) msh 和\(AR_{OM}=11\,400\pm 3300\) msd （太阳盘的百万分之一）所谓的“观测”区域——太阳黑子在可见太阳盘上的投影。还估算了太阳黑子数\(SN_{M}=258\pm 38\)和太阳黑子群数\(GN_{M}=12.3\pm 2.4\)的最大年平均值；11.3 \({\%}\)太阳活动处于极高水平的时间；其水平分别对应道尔顿最小值或更低和极低水平的时间的8.5 和 4.5 \({\%}\) 。因此，极高水平比极低水平更有可能发生太阳活动。