Intelligence agencies communicate uncertainty to decision-makers through verbal probability phrases that correspond to numerical ranges (i.e., probability lexicons) and ordinal levels of confidence. However, decision-makers may misinterpret the relationship between these concepts and form inappropriate interpretations of intelligence analysts' uncertainty. In two experiments, four ways of conveying second-order probability to decision-makers were compared: (a) probability and confidence phrases written in the text of a report, (b) the addition of a probability lexicon, (c) the addition of a probability lexicon that varied numerical ranges according to the level of confidence (i.e., revised lexicon), and (d) a probability phrase written in text followed by a numerical range that varied according to the level of confidence. The revised lexicon was expected to improve interpretations of second-order probability. The 275 participants in Experiment 1 and 796 participants in Experiment 2 provided numerical estimates corresponding to analytic judgments provided in descriptions about three overseas military operations and also indicated their support for approving or delaying the operations. The results demonstrated that providing the numerical range in the text of the report or providing a probability lexicon, improved interpretations of probability phrases above the verbal phrase-only condition, but not interpretations of confidence. Participants were unable to correctly interpret confidence with respect to the precision of their estimate intervals and their decisions about the operations. However, in Experiments 2 and 3 the effects on these variables of providing decision-makers with information about the source of the analyst's uncertainty were examined. In Experiment 3 (n = 510), providing this information improved correspondence between confidence level and approval of the operation. Recommendations are provided regarding additional methods of improving decision-makers' interpretation of second-order probability conveyed in intelligence reporting.

中文翻译：

---

概率与置信度：如何改善情报分析中不确定性的沟通

情报机构通过与数字范围（即概率词典）和顺序置信水平相对应的口头概率短语向决策者传达不确定性。然而，决策者可能会误解这些概念之间的关系，并对情报分析师的不确定性形成不恰当的解释。在两个实验中，比较了向决策者传达二阶概率的四种方法：（a）在报告文本中写入概率和置信短语，（b）添加概率词典，（c）添加根据置信度改变数字范围的概率词典（即修订后的词典），以及（d）以文本形式书写的概率短语，后跟根据置信度变化的数字范围。修订后的词典预计将改善对二阶概率的解释。实验1的275名参与者和实验2的796名参与者提供了与三项海外军事行动描述中的分析判断相对应的数值估计，并表示支持批准或推迟行动。结果表明，在报告文本中提供数字范围或提供概率词典，可以改进对概率短语的解释，高于仅口头短语的条件，但不能解释置信度。参与者无法正确解释其估计区间的精度和操作决策的置信度。然而，在实验 2 和 3 中，研究了向决策者提供有关分析师不确定性来源的信息对这些变量的影响。在实验 3 ( n  = 510) 中，提供此信息改善了置信度和操作批准之间的对应关系。提供了有关改善决策者对情报报告中传达的二阶概率的解释的其他方法的建议。