Inspired by macroeconomic scenarios, we aim to experimentally investigate the evolution of short- and long-run expectations under different specifications of the fundamentals. We collect individual predictions for future prices in a series of Learning to Forecast Experiments with a time-varying fundamental value. In particular, we observe how expectations evolve in markets where the fundamental value follows either a V-shaped or an inverse V-shaped pattern. These conditions are compared with markets characterized by a constant and a slightly linear increasing fundamental value. We assess whether minor but systematic variations in the fundamentals affect individual short- and long-run expectations by considering positive and negative feedback-expectation systems. Compared to a setting with constant fundamentals, the slowly varying fundamentals have a limited impact on how subjects form their expectations in positive feedback markets, whereas in negative feedback markets we observe notable changes.

受宏观经济情景的启发，我们的目标是通过实验研究不同基本面规格下短期和长期预期的演变。我们在一系列学习预测实验中收集对未来价格的个人预测，其基本价值随时间变化。特别是，我们观察基本价值遵循 V 形或反 V 形模式的市场中预期如何演变。这些条件与基本价值恒定且略微线性增长的市场进行比较。我们通过考虑积极和消极的反馈预期系统来评估基本面的微小但系统性的变化是否会影响个人的短期和长期预期。与基本面不变的环境相比，缓慢变化的基本面对正反馈市场中主体如何形成预期的影响有限，而在负反馈市场中我们观察到显着的变化。