Recent disruptions in international trade have had significant impacts on consumers and producers worldwide and stemmed from various reasons. This study aims to identify key vulnerabilities in EU agriculture by examining an import stop on food and feed products. By conducting this stylised simulation using a global PE model (CAPRI), the authors analyse the adjustment mechanisms within the sector, investigate regional differences within the EU and test the model's ability to depict such a comprehensive scenario. The findings suggest that oilseeds are most affected by an import stop due to their high import share. Meat is indirectly impacted as it relies on imported soy for animal feed, whereas other products with high self-sufficiency levels are hardly affected. In response to the import stop, EU production expands, increasing nitrogen surpluses, particularly in regions already facing critical levels. Meat production partially moves out of the EU, increasing global GHG emissions. EU consumers are negatively affected by increased prices, leading to an overall welfare decrease in the EU with exceptions for few member states. Alongside EU imports, exports decrease, affecting prices and welfare outside the EU. In the least developed countries, prices increase especially for products that are already consumed less than recommended.

中文翻译：

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欧盟农业食品和饲料进口暂停

最近的国际贸易中断对世界各地的消费者和生产商产生了重大影响，其原因是多方面的。本研究旨在通过检查食品和饲料产品的进口停止来确定欧盟农业的关键脆弱性。通过使用全球 PE 模型 (CAPRI) 进行这种程式化模拟，作者分析了该行业内的调整机制，调查了欧盟内部的区域差异，并测试了该模型描绘此类综合情景的能力。调查结果表明，由于油籽的进口份额较高，因此受进口停止的影响最大。肉类受到间接影响，因为它依赖进口大豆作为动物饲料，而其他自给率高的产品几乎没有受到影响。为了应对进口停止，欧盟扩大了产量，增加了氮过剩，特别是在已经面临临界水平的地区。肉类生产部分移出欧盟，增加了全球温室气体排放。欧盟消费者受到价格上涨的负面影响，导致欧盟整体福利下降，少数成员国除外。随着欧盟进口的增加，出口也随之减少，影响了欧盟以外地区的价格和福利。在最不发达国家，价格上涨，尤其是那些消费量已经低于推荐量的产品。