Based on a panel of 18 advanced countries starting in 1985, we find that monetary transmission to economic activity is substantially weaker when interest rates are low. The results hold when controlling for potential confounding non-linearities associated with debt levels and the business cycle as well as for the trend decline in equilibrium interest rates. These findings suggest that the observed flattening of the Phillips curve has gone hand in hand with a steepening of the IS curve as interest rates remained persistently low, making monetary policy trade-offs more challenging.

中文翻译：

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失去牵引力？低利率时货币政策的实际效果

根据自 1985 年开始对 18 个发达国家进行的调查，我们发现，当利率较低时，货币对经济活动的传导要弱得多。当控制与债务水平和商业周期相关的潜在混杂非线性以及均衡利率的趋势下降时，结果成立。这些发现表明，随着利率持续保持在低位，菲利普斯曲线的平坦化与 IS 曲线的陡峭化同时发生，这使得货币政策的权衡更具挑战性。