We estimate the effects of the introduction of a large cash transfer programme on support for the ruling populist party in Poland. We exploit the variation at the municipal level in the annual cash transfer amount received per capita, and use a difference-in-differences research design to study the electoral effects of the transfer. Our results show that a cash transfer amount of $100 per capita translated into an increase in the vote share for the ruling party of nearly two percentage points. One-third of additional votes came from new voters coming off the sidelines, and the remaining electoral gains were due to voters who had previously voted for other parties. The effects of the programme are persistent, as we see no decrease in the magnitude of effects seven years after the introduction.

中文翻译：

---

当民粹主义者兑现他们的承诺时：波兰大规模现金转移计划的选举影响

我们评估了引入大规模现金转移计划对波兰执政民粹主义政党支持的影响。我们利用市级人均年度现金转移金额的变化，并使用双重差分研究设计来研究转移对选举的影响。我们的结果显示，人均 100 美元的现金转移金额意味着执政党的选票份额增加了近两个百分点。三分之一的额外选票来自旁观的新选民，其余的选举收益则来自之前投票给其他政党的选民。该计划的影响是持久的，因为我们看到实施七年后影响的程度没有减少。