We develop a theory of endogenous uncertainty in which the ability of investors to learn about firm-level fundamentals is impaired during financial crises. At the same time, higher uncertainty reinforces financial distress. Through this two-way feedback loop, a temporary financial shock can cause a persistent reduction in risky lending, output, and employment that coincides with increased uncertainty, default rates, credit spreads and disagreement among forecasters. We embed our mechanism into standard real business cycle and New-Keynesian models and show how it generates endogenous and internally persistent processes for the efficiency and labor wedges.

中文翻译：

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内生不确定性和信贷紧缩

我们发展了一种内生不确定性理论，其中投资者了解公司基本面的能力在金融危机期间受到损害。与此同时，较高的不确定性加剧了财务困境。通过这种双向反馈循环，暂时的金融冲击可能会导致风险贷款、产出和就业持续减少，同时不确定性、违约率、信用利差和预测者之间的分歧也会增加。我们将我们的机制嵌入到标准的实际商业周期和新凯恩斯主义模型中，并展示它如何为效率和劳动力楔子生成内生和内部持久的流程。