This study investigates the effects of health care policy uncertainty (HCPU) on aggregate- and state-level employment in the USA. Using quarterly data during 1985Q1–2021Q4, we estimate a structural vector autoregressive model and find that HCPU has adverse effects on both aggregate- and state-level employment. The effects at the state level are heterogeneous in terms of both the magnitude and the impact persistence, lasting up to 5 quarters. The heterogeneity can be explained by state-specific structural factors, most notably the right-to-work legislation. The study suggests that uncertainty in health care policies has an economic cost that may be partially preventable.

本研究调查了医疗保健政策不确定性 (HCPU) 对美国总体和州一级就业的影响。使用 1985 年第一季度至 2021 年第四季度的季度数据，我们估计了结构向量自回归模型，发现 HCPU 对总体就业和州就业都有不利影响。州一级的影响在程度和影响持续性方面各不相同，可持续长达 5 个季度。这种异质性可以用各州特定的结构性因素来解释，最明显的是工作权立法。研究表明，医疗保健政策的不确定性所造成的经济成本或许是可以部分避免的。