当前位置: X-MOL 学术J. Commod. Mark. › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
Forecasting the price of oil: A cautionary note
Journal of Commodity Markets ( IF 3.317 ) Pub Date : 2023-12-06 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jcomm.2023.100378
Thomas Conlon , John Cotter , Emmanuel Eyiah-Donkor

We study the out-of-sample predictability of monthly crude oil prices using forecast combinations constructed from several individual predictor forecasts. Our empirical results indicate that combination forecasts of monthly average oil prices are more accurate than the no-change forecast with statistically significant reductions in mean square forecast errors (MSFE) and significant directional accuracy at every horizon up to 24 months, consistent with earlier evidence that forecast combinations greatly enhance the forecastability of oil prices. In contrast, we find no significant MSFE reductions or directional accuracy for forecasts of end-of-month oil prices at almost all horizons. Furthermore, we document that end-of-month forecasts when used to guide investment and hedging decisions of investors, statistically, do not deliver superior economic value to investors. Overall, the implication of our results is that the statistical and economic significance of forecasts of oil prices is heavily influenced by the construction of the underlying oil price series and provide a cautionary note on which oil price series to use in forecasting.



中文翻译:

预测石油价格:警告

更新日期:2023-12-10
down
wechat
bug