The Ultimate Host Economies (UHEs) of a given country are defined as the ultimate destinations of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) originating in that country. Bilateral FDI statistics struggle to identify them due to the non-negligible presence of conduit jurisdictions, which provide attractive intermediate destinations for pass-through investments due to favorable tax regimes. At the same time, determining UHEs is crucial for understanding the actual paths followed by FDI among increasingly interdependent economies. In this paper, we first reconstruct the global FDI network through mirroring and clustering techniques, starting from data collected by the International Monetary Fund. Then we provide a method for computing an (approximate) distribution of the UHEs of a country by using a probabilistic approach to this network, based on Markov chains. More specifically, we analyze the Italian case.

特定国家的最终东道国经济体 (UHE) 被定义为源自该国的外国直接投资 (FDI) 的最终目的地。由于导管管辖区的存在不可忽视，双边外国直接投资统计数据很难识别它们，而导管管辖区由于有利的税收制度，为传递投资提供了有吸引力的中间目的地。与此同时，确定 UHE 对于理解日益相互依赖的经济体中 FDI 的实际路径至关重要。在本文中，我们首先从国际货币基金组织收集的数据出发，通过镜像和聚类技术重建全球 FDI 网络。然后，我们提供了一种方法，通过使用基于马尔可夫链的概率方法来计算一个国家的 UHE 的（近似）分布。更具体地说，我们分析意大利的案例。