The estimated seismic hazard based on the delineated seismic source model is used as the basis to assign the seismic design loads in Canadian structural design codes. An alternative for the estimation is based on a spatially smoothed source model. However, a quantification of differences in the Canadian seismic hazard maps (CanSHMs) obtained based on the delineated seismic source model and spatially smoothed model is unavailable. The quantification is valuable to identify epistemic uncertainty in the estimated seismic hazard and the degree of uncertainty in the CanSHMs. In the present study, we developed seismic source models using spatial smoothing and historical earthquake catalogue. We quantified the differences in the estimated Canadian seismic hazard by considering the delineated source model and spatially smoothed source models. For the development of the spatially smoothed seismic source models, we considered spatial kernel smoothing techniques with or without adaptive bandwidth. The results indicate that the use of the delineated seismic source model could lead to under or over-estimation of the seismic hazard as compared to those estimated based on spatially smoothed seismic source models. This suggests that an epistemic uncertainty caused by the seismic source models should be considered to map the seismic hazard.

在加拿大结构设计规范中，基于描绘的震源模型估计的地震危险性被用作分配抗震设计荷载的基础。估计的替代方法是基于空间平滑源模型。然而，基于描绘的震源模型和空间平滑模型获得的加拿大地震灾害图（CanSHM）的差异无法量化。量化对于识别估计地震灾害的认知不确定性以及 CanSHM 的不确定性程度非常有价值。在本研究中，我们使用空间平滑和历史地震目录开发了震源模型。我们通过考虑描绘的震源模型和空间平滑的震源模型来量化估计的加拿大地震危险性的差异。为了开发空间平滑震源模型，我们考虑了带或不带自适应带宽的空间核平滑技术。结果表明，与基于空间平滑震源模型的估计相比，使用勾画的震源模型可能会导致地震危险性的低估或高估。这表明应考虑由震源模型引起的认知不确定性来绘制地震灾害图。