Abstract

The article provides an overview of publications devoted to assessing changes in the water regime of Russian rivers under the conditions of current and projected climate changes. The most recent summary of the relevant publications is contained in the national assessment reports of Roshydromet. Since the publication of these fundamental works, a large number of studies have been published, clarifying the conclusions of the national reports. The purpose of this review is to summarize the modern ideas about the impact of climate change on the territory of the Russian Federation on the mean annual and maximum river flow, primarily based on the publications in recent years. The review is divided into two parts. The first part presents the results of the diagnosis of changes in the long-term norms of the annual and maximum flow of Russian rivers that occurred during the period of instrumental observations in the XX–early XXI centuries. Due to the geographical differences in the direction and magnitude of climate changes and associated changes in the water regime of rivers, the review is given separately for the rivers of the European and Asian territories of Russia. It is shown that the annual runoff over the territory of European Russia in recent decades has a tendency to increase, associated with a general rise in the humidity of the territory. However, for most of the analyzed river basins, the changes are statistically insignificant. The annual runoff of rivers from the territory of Siberia and the Far East into the Arctic seas of Russia has also slightly increased on average. The changes in the maximum runoff are more pronounced and differently directed. The second part of the article provides an overview of publications that present projections of changes in the water regime of Russian rivers until the end of the XXI century. The projections were obtained in ensemble experiments with climate models or with regional hydrological models. The conclusions made in the Second Assessment Report of Roshydromet regarding the insignificant positive anomalies of the annual runoff rate for most of the territory of Russia under moderate anthropogenic warming scenarios in the XXI century have been confirmed. The most pronounced positive anomalies of the snowmelt and rainfall runoff in the XXI century are possible on large rivers of Siberia in the case of implementation of the RCP8.5 scenario of anthropogenic radiation impact.

中文翻译：

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气候变化对俄罗斯河流年径流量和最大径流量的影响：诊断和预测

摘要

本文概述了致力于评估当前和预计气候变化条件下俄罗斯河流水情变化的出版物。相关出版物的最新摘要包含在 RosHydromet 的国家评估报告中。自这些基础性著作发表以来，发表了大量研究报告，阐明了国家报告的结论。本次审查的目的是总结关于气候变化对俄罗斯联邦境内年平均和最大河流流量影响的现代观点，主要基于近年来的出版物。审查分为两部分。第一部分介绍了对二十世纪至二十一世纪初仪器观测期间俄罗斯河流年流量和最大流量长期标准变化的诊断结果。由于气候变化方向和幅度以及河流水情变化的地理差异，分别对俄罗斯欧洲和亚洲领土的河流进行审查。结果表明，近几十年来俄罗斯欧洲部分地区的年径流量呈增加趋势，与该地区湿度的普遍上升有关。然而，对于大多数分析的流域来说，这些变化在统计上并不显着。从西伯利亚境内和远东地区流入俄罗斯北冰洋的河流年径流量平均也略有增加。最大径流的变化更加明显且方向不同。本文的第二部分概述了对 21 世纪末俄罗斯河流水情变化的预测的出版物。这些预测是通过气候模型或区域水文模型的集合实验获得的。俄罗斯水文气象局第二次评估报告中关于二十一世纪中度人为变暖情景下俄罗斯大部分领土年径流量微不足道的正异常的结论已得到证实。在实施 RCP8.5 人为辐射影响情景的情况下，西伯利亚的大河可能会出现二十一世纪最明显的融雪和降雨径流正异常。