The expectations-augmented Phillips curve (PC) is a cornerstone of many macroeconomic models. We consider the extent to which professional forecasters’ inflation and unemployment rate forecasts are ‘theory consistent’, and find much heterogeneity. Perceptions about the responsiveness of inflation to the unemployment rate are shown to depend on whether the respondent was active earlier or later during the period 1981–2019, and on whether the respondent happened to forecast at times of tight labour markets.

Theory consistency is related to more accurate forecasts at the shortest horizon but not significantly so at longer horizons. At longer horizons PC-model heterogeneity accounts for the lion’s share of the observed disagreement in reported inflation forecasts.

预期增强菲利普斯曲线（PC）是许多宏观经济模型的基石。我们考虑了专业预测者的通胀和失业率预测的“理论一致性”程度，并发现了很大的异质性。对通货膨胀对失业率反应的看法取决于受访者在 1981 年至 2019 年期间是否较早或较晚活跃，以及受访者是否碰巧在劳动力市场紧张时期进行预测。

理论一致性与最短期限内更准确的预测有关，但在较长期限内则不显着。从长远来看，PC 模型的异质性在报告的通胀预测中观察到的分歧中占了很大一部分。