The “Great Trade Collapse” triggered by the 2008-2009 crisis calls for a careful assessment of the trade losses from financial crises. We adopt a more detailed perspective by looking at the response of different types of trade (i.e. consumption, intermediate, capital goods, and business services) following various types of financial crises (i.e. debt, banking, and currency crises) in 41 emerging markets. Estimations performed in the 1980-2019 period using a combination of impact assessment and local projections to capture a causal dynamic effect running from financial crises to the trade activity show that the collapse of total trade is long-lasting and mainly driven by the fall of intermediate goods and to some extent capital goods, while trade in consumption goods and business services is more resilient to crises. Therefore, financial crises could lead to considerable disruption of global value chains, as observed during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), and easily spill over from one country to another through trade linkages. The examination of heterogeneity reveals that total and sectoral trade is more severely impacted in countries with a lower share of manufacturing exports, less diversified exported products, and trading partners, with lower demand from trading partners and when associated with a deterioration of the domestic and external financial conditions and sudden stops. By contributing to the understanding of the trade effects of financial crises, our analysis provides insightful support for the design and implementation of policies aimed at coping with these effects.

中文翻译：

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金融危机造成的部门贸易损失


2008-2009年金融危机引发的“贸易大崩溃”，需要认真评估金融危机带来的贸易损失。我们采用更详细的视角，考察了 41 个新兴市场不同类型的贸易（即消费、中间产品、资本货物和商业服务）对各种类型的金融危机（即债务、银行和货币危机）的反应。 1980 年至 2019 年期间，结合影响评估和当地预测来捕捉金融危机对贸易活动的因果动态影响，进行的估计表明，贸易总额的崩溃是长期的，主要是由中间品的下降造成的。商品贸易和某种程度上资本货物贸易，而消费品和商业服务贸易对危机的抵御能力更强。因此，正如全球金融危机（GFC）期间所观察到的那样，金融危机可能会导致全球价值链受到严重破坏，并很容易通过贸易联系从一个国家蔓延到另一个国家。对异质性的研究表明，在制造业出口份额较低、出口产品较少、贸易伙伴需求较低以及与国内外经济恶化有关的国家，总贸易和部门贸易受到的影响更为严重。财务状况和突然停止。通过帮助理解金融危机的贸易影响，我们的分析为旨在应对这些影响的政策的设计和实施提供了富有洞察力的支持。