This article explores the dynamics of modern authoritarian regimes, using Belarus under Alexander Lukashenko as a case study. By examining Belarus’s transition from a “competitive authoritarian” regime to a “hegemonic authoritarian” one from 1994 to 1996 and its further shift from a spin dictatorship to a fear dictatorship in 2020, the study offers insights into the multifaceted nature of dictatorships. The main findings are that using elections as a means to classify regimes does not fully explain their effect on authoritarian vulnerability and that different classifications of dictatorship, such as spin versus fear, are not necessarily mutually exclusive.

本文以亚历山大·卢卡申科领导下的白俄罗斯为案例研究，探讨了现代独裁政权的动态。通过考察1994年至1996年白俄罗斯从“竞争性独裁”政权向“霸权独裁”政权的转变以及2020年白俄罗斯从旋转独裁政权进一步转变为恐惧独裁政权的情况，该研究为独裁政权的多方面本质提供了见解。主要发现是，使用选举作为对政权进行分类的手段并不能完全解释其对威权脆弱性的影响，并且独裁的不同分类，例如旋转与恐惧，不一定是相互排斥的。